When a Political Event Becomes a Market: How Decentralized Event Trading Actually Aggregates Information
Imagine it’s the evening before a tightly contested U.S. Senate runoff. You read three conflicting polls, an analyst thread with a plausible vote-turnout model, and a campaign press release claiming momentum. You want to act on that mix of signals but you also want to quantify how much the market — not a pundit — […]
